Real "oil Vision"

People are always willing to believe would be predicted by just a simple summary of existing fields, cognitive, and deduce how much oil can be predictive of exploitation, in fact, wrong. Expected to supply a large part of its source either remain undetected, either there is still no reliable technology can economically and effectively mined. In other words, a serious lack of factual basis of these expectations. U.S. Energy Information Administration officer Glenn Turner mother Swift published the "2009 Report" for the idea that provides a case in point.
"2009 Report" noted that by 2030, the world's existing oil and gas fields of oil and other liquid fuels are expected to fall to 4.3 million barrels per day. Although the  Hydraulic fracturing  method can hew out of the reach of current reservoirs, but its impact is difficult to meet the world's oil supply. The expected trend has been observed with the existing field production rate of 4% annually shrinking phenomenon match. Of course, over the next 18 years there will be more and more new projects to be developed. Even  shale gas  achieve maximum output, in order to meet the expected demand, still in 18 years is equivalent to five new Saudi production.
In recent years, based on 100% of the hydrocarbon oil can assume conversion, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also included in the oil supply. LNG is natural gas drilling as U.S. yields heat surge, but in fact only a small part of LNG can directly replace petroleum, and its mix of features that make methane alone is almost impossible to improve that part of the production.
On the other hand, condensate production since 2005 has maintained a steady level, exacerbating concerns about the situation of the oil people. Over the past decade, soaring oil prices prompted oil companies continue to increase capital investment, but these efforts did not succeed to promote oil production to achieve a qualitative leap.
It was noted that the Americas found in western rich shale oil to fill the next ten years, supply and demand is poor. But at present, the resource has not been achieved outputs commercialization.
Perhaps, "2009 Report" to convey the most important information is not intended to explore how much resources,fracturing proppant but should be achieved in the rate of development resources. If not profitable exploitation, and then a big reservoir meaningless. International Energy Agency statistics show that production of conventional oil resources continued to shrink since 2006, and now increasingly rely on unconventional resources, such as the Canadian oil sands and heavy oil in Venezuela, and the development and refinement of these resources is difficult. So far, the development of unconventional oil can offset the cheapest and most easy to exploit that part of the reduced production of conventional oil.
Can be said that the global economy totally dependent on energy. And to provide global 1/3 and 80% of energy required to transport fuel oil can be described as a top priority. Unless oil production growth, or the world economy will be halted.
Obviously, the energy policy should be based on timely and appropriate manner to fill the energy gap Swaziland Turner mother concept. However, that's not necessarily true. If the seven years the high international oil prices can only push the marginal rate of liquid energy rose 3.15%, if condensate production lifeless, how to expect the next seven years or seven years and then a supply-side energy turnaround?
Advent of new technology may provide a solution to the problem. But the so-called new technology has not put on the agenda, and that the next 18 years may not have any change.
Hydraulic fracturing method first appeared in 1947, 1977, George Mitchell and his company Mitchell Energy Development Corporation its application to the development of deep-sea resources, which took 20 years to perfect the technology, and spent 10 years before it was extended to the entire oil and gas industry.
This is the hydraulic fracturing technology development history, from technology came into its being true for the development of shale resources spent a full 60 years. So, do not believe the next 18 years there will be any technical miracle, unless this miracle has occurred, but has not been widely used.
Although the impact of fracking has appeared previously untouched oil and gas resource development as it becomes possible, but the negative effects of global oil production may be offset by the increase of shale resources.
Given the high oil prices and new technology does not solve the problem of global oil supply shortage, need to carefully examine the energy supply charts. To reflect on whether energy policy should be based on industry and government expectations, because the industry and the Government's commitment to a rich supply of oil may not exist.